Think Thursday

Ranora Daily - Your daily source for reliable market analysis and news.

July 20, 2023

Asia and Australia

PBOC set yuan fixing at 7.1466, 680 pips stronger than Bloomberg estimate and largest bias since November.
China’s Loan prime rates were left unchanged with 1y at 3.55% and 5y at 4.20%, both matching expectations
Hot Australian labor market increases pressure on RBA to hike again in August.
Australian economy added 32.6K jobs in June, less than May’s 76.5K increase but more than double consensus for a 15.0K gain.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden said late Wednesday inflation has begun to fall significantly but remains too high, keeping the door open to further hikes.
Latest Eurostat shows Eurozone economy avoided a winter recession with revised figures showing it stagnated at the start of this year instead of shrinking as previously thought.
German PPI 0.1% y/y vs consensus 0.0% and prior +1.0%
Turkey’s Central Bank slows the pace of rate hikes raising rates today by 2.5% from 15% to 17.5%. The consensus was for 20%.

The Americas

June housing starts down 8% m/m to 1.434M, missing consensus for 1.483M. Initial May print for 21.7% growth to 1.631M revised down to 15.7% growth to 1.631M to 1.559M.
Netflix revenue disappoints, overshadowing big subscriber beat following crackdown on password sharing
Tesla gross margin shrinks more than forecast as price cuts impact profitability; Elon Musk says Tesla to invest more than $1B to become player in supercomputing by end-2024
IBM Q2 revenue just below forecasts, reaffirms FY guidance after raising outlook for software growth
Around a fifth of 27M student debt holders due to start repayments in September to pay more than $500/month
The biggest earnings beat this morning came out of the homebuilder, DR Horton delivering a 40% beat on EPS and 16% beat on Revenue. Homebuilding gross margin improved to at 23.3% vs. 21.2% last quarter. This is something we were watching.

Monday:
- China's Gross Domestic Product expanded by 6.3% year-on-year in Q2 2023
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to +1.1
Tuesday:
- US Retail sales in the US rose 0.2% month-over-month in June of 2023
Wednesday:
- UK Consumer price inflation dropped to 7.9 percent
- US Building permits declined by 3.7% in June 2023 to an annual rate of 1.44 million
Thursday:
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained lending rates in July, keeping the one-year loan prime rate at 3.55% and the five-year rate at 4.2%
- US Initial jobless claims
- US existing home sales
Friday:
- UK GFK Consumer Confidence
- UK Retail Sales

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